This analysis models a typical BRRRR project in South Lawndale at the neighborhood median ARV of $295K. Real-world projects vary substantially based on property type, condition, and submarket dynamics.
Acquisition and rehab assumptions
| Acquisition price (85% of median) | $183K |
|---|---|
| Rehab budget (midpoint) | $113K |
| All-in cost | $295K |
| After-Repair Value (ARV) | $295K |
Monthly cash flow model
| Estimated monthly rent | $3K |
|---|---|
| Property tax (Cook County investor classification) | −$615 |
| Insurance | −$123 |
| Vacancy reserve (7%) | −$176 |
| Property management (8%) | −$201 |
| Maintenance reserve (6%) | −$150 |
| Net Operating Income (monthly) | $1K |
| DSCR refi at 75% LTV / 7.5% / 30yr | $221K loan, $2K P&I |
| Monthly cash flow after debt service | $-304 |
| Cash left in deal after refinance | $74K |
What this tells us about South Lawndale
At the South Lawndale median, a typical BRRRR project produces approximately $-304 per month in cash flow after a 75% LTV DSCR refinance. With approximately $74K remaining in the deal after refinance, this represents a -5% cash-on-cash return on the remaining capital — before appreciation.
Little Village has strong rental demand, strong cash flow at acquisition prices, and a deep tenant pool. Spanish-speaking property management is essential. The Cermak corridor and 26th Street commercial activity supports values. Pilsen-style gentrification pressure is increasing in the eastern blocks.
How this scales across South Lawndale
South Lawndale's housing stock includes 2-flat, 3-flat, workers cottage, mixed-use. Multi-unit properties (2-flat, 3-flat) typically produce 30–60% higher gross rent than single-family at similar ARVs but carry higher tax burdens and management overhead. Single-family rehabs often have stronger exit liquidity (owner-occupant buyers) but lower cash flow.
Sensitivity considerations
- Rent assumption: Modeled at ~0.85% of ARV. Actual rents in South Lawndale range from 0.6–1.0% depending on property type and condition.
- Property tax: Modeled at 2.5% of ARV for Cook County investor classification. Successful tax appeal can reduce this 15–30%.
- Interest rate: DSCR refi rates currently range 7.5–9.5% depending on borrower profile and leverage. A 1% rate change moves monthly cash flow by approximately $100–200 on this deal size.
- Rehab budget: Modeled at midpoint of $55K–$170K. Common considerations on South Lawndale housing stock (lead paint, aging boilers) can push budgets higher.
South Lawndale cash flow FAQ
Estimated monthly rent for a stabilized investment property in South Lawndale at the $295K median ARV level is approximately $3K per month — a rough rule-of-thumb estimate at ~0.85% of ARV. Actual rents vary significantly by property type (2-flat, 3-flat, workers cottage, mixed-use) and condition.
On these estimates, a typical BRRRR project at the South Lawndale median ARV produces approximately $-304 per month in cash flow after debt service (at 75% LTV DSCR refi, 7.5% rate, 30-year amortization). Cash left in the deal after refinance: $74K. Individual deals vary substantially.
For a property in South Lawndale valued at the median ARV of $295K, expect approximately $7K in annual property tax (Cook County investor-classification, before exemptions and appeals). Chicago city properties were reassessed in 2024 — many neighborhoods saw material assessment increases.
South Lawndale typically supports a rent-to-price ratio in the 0.6%-0.9% range depending on property type and condition. Multi-unit properties (2-flat, 3-flat) generally produce higher ratios than single-family. The 1% rule rarely applies in Chicago neighborhoods — but BRRRR works at lower ratios when appreciation supports it.
This is a directional cash-flow model, not personalized financial advice. Rent estimates, tax rates, and refinance terms are illustrative. Validate every assumption with current market data and your own underwriting before committing capital.