This analysis models a typical BRRRR project in North Lawndale at the neighborhood median ARV of $265K. Real-world projects vary substantially based on property type, condition, and submarket dynamics.
Acquisition and rehab assumptions
| Acquisition price (85% of median) | $149K |
|---|---|
| Rehab budget (midpoint) | $148K |
| All-in cost | $296K |
| After-Repair Value (ARV) | $265K |
Monthly cash flow model
| Estimated monthly rent | $2K |
|---|---|
| Property tax (Cook County investor classification) | −$552 |
| Insurance | −$110 |
| Vacancy reserve (7%) | −$158 |
| Property management (8%) | −$180 |
| Maintenance reserve (6%) | −$135 |
| Net Operating Income (monthly) | $1K |
| DSCR refi at 75% LTV / 7.5% / 30yr | $199K loan, $1K P&I |
| Monthly cash flow after debt service | $-272 |
| Cash left in deal after refinance | $98K |
What this tells us about North Lawndale
At the North Lawndale median, a typical BRRRR project produces approximately $-272 per month in cash flow after a 75% LTV DSCR refinance. With approximately $98K remaining in the deal after refinance, this represents a -3% cash-on-cash return on the remaining capital — before appreciation.
North Lawndale has been the subject of multiple coordinated redevelopment efforts (LCFC, Sankofa, others). Investor opportunities exist but successful operators almost always partner with established CDCs or community institutions. Pure investor plays without community alignment face friction.
How this scales across North Lawndale
North Lawndale's housing stock includes greystone, 2-flat, 3-flat, workers cottage. Multi-unit properties (2-flat, 3-flat) typically produce 30–60% higher gross rent than single-family at similar ARVs but carry higher tax burdens and management overhead. Single-family rehabs often have stronger exit liquidity (owner-occupant buyers) but lower cash flow.
Sensitivity considerations
- Rent assumption: Modeled at ~0.85% of ARV. Actual rents in North Lawndale range from 0.6–1.0% depending on property type and condition.
- Property tax: Modeled at 2.5% of ARV for Cook County investor classification. Successful tax appeal can reduce this 15–30%.
- Interest rate: DSCR refi rates currently range 7.5–9.5% depending on borrower profile and leverage. A 1% rate change moves monthly cash flow by approximately $100–200 on this deal size.
- Rehab budget: Modeled at midpoint of $75K–$220K. Common considerations on North Lawndale housing stock (extensive vacancy damage, historic restoration costs) can push budgets higher.
North Lawndale cash flow FAQ
Estimated monthly rent for a stabilized investment property in North Lawndale at the $265K median ARV level is approximately $2K per month — a rough rule-of-thumb estimate at ~0.85% of ARV. Actual rents vary significantly by property type (greystone, 2-flat, 3-flat, workers cottage) and condition.
On these estimates, a typical BRRRR project at the North Lawndale median ARV produces approximately $-272 per month in cash flow after debt service (at 75% LTV DSCR refi, 7.5% rate, 30-year amortization). Cash left in the deal after refinance: $98K. Individual deals vary substantially.
For a property in North Lawndale valued at the median ARV of $265K, expect approximately $7K in annual property tax (Cook County investor-classification, before exemptions and appeals). Chicago city properties were reassessed in 2024 — many neighborhoods saw material assessment increases.
North Lawndale typically supports a rent-to-price ratio in the 0.6%-0.9% range depending on property type and condition. Multi-unit properties (2-flat, 3-flat) generally produce higher ratios than single-family. The 1% rule rarely applies in Chicago neighborhoods — but BRRRR works at lower ratios when appreciation supports it.
This is a directional cash-flow model, not personalized financial advice. Rent estimates, tax rates, and refinance terms are illustrative. Validate every assumption with current market data and your own underwriting before committing capital.