north side · cash flow modeling

North Center Cash Flow Analysis

BRRRR and long-term rental cash-flow modeling for North Center investor properties at the neighborhood median.

This analysis models a typical BRRRR project in North Center at the neighborhood median ARV of $875K. Real-world projects vary substantially based on property type, condition, and submarket dynamics.

Acquisition and rehab assumptions

Acquisition price (85% of median)$591K
Rehab budget (midpoint)$163K
All-in cost$753K
After-Repair Value (ARV)$875K

Monthly cash flow model

Estimated monthly rent$7K
Property tax (Cook County investor classification)−$2K
Insurance−$365
Vacancy reserve (7%)−$521
Property management (8%)−$595
Maintenance reserve (6%)−$446
Net Operating Income (monthly)$4K
DSCR refi at 75% LTV / 7.5% / 30yr$656K loan, $5K P&I
Monthly cash flow after debt service$-901
Cash left in deal after refinance$97K

What this tells us about North Center

At the North Center median, a typical BRRRR project produces approximately $-901 per month in cash flow after a 75% LTV DSCR refinance. With approximately $97K remaining in the deal after refinance, this represents a -11% cash-on-cash return on the remaining capital — before appreciation.

North Center is the most aggressive top-end fix-and-flip market on the north side. Coonley and Bell school catchments command material premiums. Hard money is common because deals close fast and rehabs are 6-9 month projects.

How this scales across North Center

North Center's housing stock includes single-family, 2-flat to single-family conversion. Multi-unit properties (2-flat, 3-flat) typically produce 30–60% higher gross rent than single-family at similar ARVs but carry higher tax burdens and management overhead. Single-family rehabs often have stronger exit liquidity (owner-occupant buyers) but lower cash flow.

Sensitivity considerations

  • Rent assumption: Modeled at ~0.85% of ARV. Actual rents in North Center range from 0.6–1.0% depending on property type and condition.
  • Property tax: Modeled at 2.5% of ARV for Cook County investor classification. Successful tax appeal can reduce this 15–30%.
  • Interest rate: DSCR refi rates currently range 7.5–9.5% depending on borrower profile and leverage. A 1% rate change moves monthly cash flow by approximately $100–200 on this deal size.
  • Rehab budget: Modeled at midpoint of $75K–$250K. Common considerations on North Center housing stock (historic restoration, addition/dormer work) can push budgets higher.

North Center cash flow FAQ

What's the typical monthly rent in North Center?

Estimated monthly rent for a stabilized investment property in North Center at the $875K median ARV level is approximately $7K per month — a rough rule-of-thumb estimate at ~0.85% of ARV. Actual rents vary significantly by property type (single-family, 2-flat to single-family conversion) and condition.

Does BRRRR pencil in North Center?

On these estimates, a typical BRRRR project at the North Center median ARV produces approximately $-901 per month in cash flow after debt service (at 75% LTV DSCR refi, 7.5% rate, 30-year amortization). Cash left in the deal after refinance: $97K. Individual deals vary substantially.

What's the typical property tax burden in North Center?

For a property in North Center valued at the median ARV of $875K, expect approximately $22K in annual property tax (Cook County investor-classification, before exemptions and appeals). Chicago city properties were reassessed in 2024 — many neighborhoods saw material assessment increases.

What rent-to-price ratio does North Center typically support?

North Center typically supports a rent-to-price ratio in the 0.6%-0.9% range depending on property type and condition. Multi-unit properties (2-flat, 3-flat) generally produce higher ratios than single-family. The 1% rule rarely applies in Chicago neighborhoods — but BRRRR works at lower ratios when appreciation supports it.

This is a directional cash-flow model, not personalized financial advice. Rent estimates, tax rates, and refinance terms are illustrative. Validate every assumption with current market data and your own underwriting before committing capital.

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