This analysis models a typical BRRRR project in Lincoln Square at the neighborhood median ARV of $745K. Real-world projects vary substantially based on property type, condition, and submarket dynamics.
Acquisition and rehab assumptions
| Acquisition price (85% of median) | $506K |
|---|---|
| Rehab budget (midpoint) | $130K |
| All-in cost | $636K |
| After-Repair Value (ARV) | $745K |
Monthly cash flow model
| Estimated monthly rent | $6K |
|---|---|
| Property tax (Cook County investor classification) | −$2K |
| Insurance | −$310 |
| Vacancy reserve (7%) | −$443 |
| Property management (8%) | −$507 |
| Maintenance reserve (6%) | −$380 |
| Net Operating Income (monthly) | $3K |
| DSCR refi at 75% LTV / 7.5% / 30yr | $559K loan, $4K P&I |
| Monthly cash flow after debt service | $-766 |
| Cash left in deal after refinance | $77K |
What this tells us about Lincoln Square
At the Lincoln Square median, a typical BRRRR project produces approximately $-766 per month in cash flow after a 75% LTV DSCR refinance. With approximately $77K remaining in the deal after refinance, this represents a -12% cash-on-cash return on the remaining capital — before appreciation.
Lincoln Square is end-buyer territory rather than landlord territory. Flippers do well here on quality single-family rehabs targeting families; cash-flow investors look elsewhere because rent-to-price math doesn't pencil.
How this scales across Lincoln Square
Lincoln Square's housing stock includes single-family, 2-flat, condo. Multi-unit properties (2-flat, 3-flat) typically produce 30–60% higher gross rent than single-family at similar ARVs but carry higher tax burdens and management overhead. Single-family rehabs often have stronger exit liquidity (owner-occupant buyers) but lower cash flow.
Sensitivity considerations
- Rent assumption: Modeled at ~0.85% of ARV. Actual rents in Lincoln Square range from 0.6–1.0% depending on property type and condition.
- Property tax: Modeled at 2.5% of ARV for Cook County investor classification. Successful tax appeal can reduce this 15–30%.
- Interest rate: DSCR refi rates currently range 7.5–9.5% depending on borrower profile and leverage. A 1% rate change moves monthly cash flow by approximately $100–200 on this deal size.
- Rehab budget: Modeled at midpoint of $60K–$200K. Common considerations on Lincoln Square housing stock (historic restoration, foundation movement) can push budgets higher.
Lincoln Square cash flow FAQ
Estimated monthly rent for a stabilized investment property in Lincoln Square at the $745K median ARV level is approximately $6K per month — a rough rule-of-thumb estimate at ~0.85% of ARV. Actual rents vary significantly by property type (single-family, 2-flat, condo) and condition.
On these estimates, a typical BRRRR project at the Lincoln Square median ARV produces approximately $-766 per month in cash flow after debt service (at 75% LTV DSCR refi, 7.5% rate, 30-year amortization). Cash left in the deal after refinance: $77K. Individual deals vary substantially.
For a property in Lincoln Square valued at the median ARV of $745K, expect approximately $19K in annual property tax (Cook County investor-classification, before exemptions and appeals). Chicago city properties were reassessed in 2024 — many neighborhoods saw material assessment increases.
Lincoln Square typically supports a rent-to-price ratio in the 0.6%-0.9% range depending on property type and condition. Multi-unit properties (2-flat, 3-flat) generally produce higher ratios than single-family. The 1% rule rarely applies in Chicago neighborhoods — but BRRRR works at lower ratios when appreciation supports it.
This is a directional cash-flow model, not personalized financial advice. Rent estimates, tax rates, and refinance terms are illustrative. Validate every assumption with current market data and your own underwriting before committing capital.