south side · cash flow modeling

Hyde Park Cash Flow Analysis

BRRRR and long-term rental cash-flow modeling for Hyde Park investor properties at the neighborhood median.

This analysis models a typical BRRRR project in Hyde Park at the neighborhood median ARV of $595K. Real-world projects vary substantially based on property type, condition, and submarket dynamics.

Acquisition and rehab assumptions

Acquisition price (85% of median)$395K
Rehab budget (midpoint)$158K
All-in cost$553K
After-Repair Value (ARV)$595K

Monthly cash flow model

Estimated monthly rent$5K
Property tax (Cook County investor classification)−$1K
Insurance−$248
Vacancy reserve (7%)−$354
Property management (8%)−$405
Maintenance reserve (6%)−$303
Net Operating Income (monthly)$3K
DSCR refi at 75% LTV / 7.5% / 30yr$446K loan, $3K P&I
Monthly cash flow after debt service$-612
Cash left in deal after refinance$107K

What this tells us about Hyde Park

At the Hyde Park median, a typical BRRRR project produces approximately $-612 per month in cash flow after a 75% LTV DSCR refinance. With approximately $107K remaining in the deal after refinance, this represents a -7% cash-on-cash return on the remaining capital — before appreciation.

Hyde Park is more end-buyer driven than investor driven. UChicago faculty and graduate student demand provides stable rental support. Co-op buildings are common — vet ownership structure carefully before bidding.

How this scales across Hyde Park

Hyde Park's housing stock includes vintage condo, historic single-family, 2-flat, mid-rise. Multi-unit properties (2-flat, 3-flat) typically produce 30–60% higher gross rent than single-family at similar ARVs but carry higher tax burdens and management overhead. Single-family rehabs often have stronger exit liquidity (owner-occupant buyers) but lower cash flow.

Sensitivity considerations

  • Rent assumption: Modeled at ~0.85% of ARV. Actual rents in Hyde Park range from 0.6–1.0% depending on property type and condition.
  • Property tax: Modeled at 2.5% of ARV for Cook County investor classification. Successful tax appeal can reduce this 15–30%.
  • Interest rate: DSCR refi rates currently range 7.5–9.5% depending on borrower profile and leverage. A 1% rate change moves monthly cash flow by approximately $100–200 on this deal size.
  • Rehab budget: Modeled at midpoint of $70K–$245K. Common considerations on Hyde Park housing stock (historic restoration, building system updates) can push budgets higher.

Hyde Park cash flow FAQ

What's the typical monthly rent in Hyde Park?

Estimated monthly rent for a stabilized investment property in Hyde Park at the $595K median ARV level is approximately $5K per month — a rough rule-of-thumb estimate at ~0.85% of ARV. Actual rents vary significantly by property type (vintage condo, historic single-family, 2-flat, mid-rise) and condition.

Does BRRRR pencil in Hyde Park?

On these estimates, a typical BRRRR project at the Hyde Park median ARV produces approximately $-612 per month in cash flow after debt service (at 75% LTV DSCR refi, 7.5% rate, 30-year amortization). Cash left in the deal after refinance: $107K. Individual deals vary substantially.

What's the typical property tax burden in Hyde Park?

For a property in Hyde Park valued at the median ARV of $595K, expect approximately $15K in annual property tax (Cook County investor-classification, before exemptions and appeals). Chicago city properties were reassessed in 2024 — many neighborhoods saw material assessment increases.

What rent-to-price ratio does Hyde Park typically support?

Hyde Park typically supports a rent-to-price ratio in the 0.6%-0.9% range depending on property type and condition. Multi-unit properties (2-flat, 3-flat) generally produce higher ratios than single-family. The 1% rule rarely applies in Chicago neighborhoods — but BRRRR works at lower ratios when appreciation supports it.

This is a directional cash-flow model, not personalized financial advice. Rent estimates, tax rates, and refinance terms are illustrative. Validate every assumption with current market data and your own underwriting before committing capital.

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