south side · cash flow modeling

Grand Boulevard Cash Flow Analysis

BRRRR and long-term rental cash-flow modeling for Grand Boulevard investor properties at the neighborhood median.

This analysis models a typical BRRRR project in Grand Boulevard at the neighborhood median ARV of $345K. Real-world projects vary substantially based on property type, condition, and submarket dynamics.

Acquisition and rehab assumptions

Acquisition price (85% of median)$208K
Rehab budget (midpoint)$143K
All-in cost$351K
After-Repair Value (ARV)$345K

Monthly cash flow model

Estimated monthly rent$3K
Property tax (Cook County investor classification)−$719
Insurance−$144
Vacancy reserve (7%)−$205
Property management (8%)−$235
Maintenance reserve (6%)−$176
Net Operating Income (monthly)$1K
DSCR refi at 75% LTV / 7.5% / 30yr$259K loan, $2K P&I
Monthly cash flow after debt service$-355
Cash left in deal after refinance$92K

What this tells us about Grand Boulevard

At the Grand Boulevard median, a typical BRRRR project produces approximately $-355 per month in cash flow after a 75% LTV DSCR refinance. With approximately $92K remaining in the deal after refinance, this represents a -5% cash-on-cash return on the remaining capital — before appreciation.

Grand Boulevard is the heart of Bronzeville. Multiple landmark districts require Landmarks Commission approval — budget 60-120 days for permits in those zones. Restoration premiums are real but require quality execution.

How this scales across Grand Boulevard

Grand Boulevard's housing stock includes greystone, 2-flat, 3-flat, historic single-family, mid-rise condo. Multi-unit properties (2-flat, 3-flat) typically produce 30–60% higher gross rent than single-family at similar ARVs but carry higher tax burdens and management overhead. Single-family rehabs often have stronger exit liquidity (owner-occupant buyers) but lower cash flow.

Sensitivity considerations

  • Rent assumption: Modeled at ~0.85% of ARV. Actual rents in Grand Boulevard range from 0.6–1.0% depending on property type and condition.
  • Property tax: Modeled at 2.5% of ARV for Cook County investor classification. Successful tax appeal can reduce this 15–30%.
  • Interest rate: DSCR refi rates currently range 7.5–9.5% depending on borrower profile and leverage. A 1% rate change moves monthly cash flow by approximately $100–200 on this deal size.
  • Rehab budget: Modeled at midpoint of $70K–$215K. Common considerations on Grand Boulevard housing stock (historic restoration, vacancy damage) can push budgets higher.

Grand Boulevard cash flow FAQ

What's the typical monthly rent in Grand Boulevard?

Estimated monthly rent for a stabilized investment property in Grand Boulevard at the $345K median ARV level is approximately $3K per month — a rough rule-of-thumb estimate at ~0.85% of ARV. Actual rents vary significantly by property type (greystone, 2-flat, 3-flat, historic single-family, mid-rise condo) and condition.

Does BRRRR pencil in Grand Boulevard?

On these estimates, a typical BRRRR project at the Grand Boulevard median ARV produces approximately $-355 per month in cash flow after debt service (at 75% LTV DSCR refi, 7.5% rate, 30-year amortization). Cash left in the deal after refinance: $92K. Individual deals vary substantially.

What's the typical property tax burden in Grand Boulevard?

For a property in Grand Boulevard valued at the median ARV of $345K, expect approximately $9K in annual property tax (Cook County investor-classification, before exemptions and appeals). Chicago city properties were reassessed in 2024 — many neighborhoods saw material assessment increases.

What rent-to-price ratio does Grand Boulevard typically support?

Grand Boulevard typically supports a rent-to-price ratio in the 0.6%-0.9% range depending on property type and condition. Multi-unit properties (2-flat, 3-flat) generally produce higher ratios than single-family. The 1% rule rarely applies in Chicago neighborhoods — but BRRRR works at lower ratios when appreciation supports it.

This is a directional cash-flow model, not personalized financial advice. Rent estimates, tax rates, and refinance terms are illustrative. Validate every assumption with current market data and your own underwriting before committing capital.

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