south side · cash flow modeling

Auburn Gresham Cash Flow Analysis

BRRRR and long-term rental cash-flow modeling for Auburn Gresham investor properties at the neighborhood median.

This analysis models a typical BRRRR project in Auburn Gresham at the neighborhood median ARV of $185K. Real-world projects vary substantially based on property type, condition, and submarket dynamics.

Acquisition and rehab assumptions

Acquisition price (85% of median)$98K
Rehab budget (midpoint)$100K
All-in cost$198K
After-Repair Value (ARV)$185K

Monthly cash flow model

Estimated monthly rent$2K
Property tax (Cook County investor classification)−$385
Insurance−$77
Vacancy reserve (7%)−$110
Property management (8%)−$126
Maintenance reserve (6%)−$94
Net Operating Income (monthly)$781
DSCR refi at 75% LTV / 7.5% / 30yr$139K loan, $970 P&I
Monthly cash flow after debt service$-189
Cash left in deal after refinance$59K

What this tells us about Auburn Gresham

At the Auburn Gresham median, a typical BRRRR project produces approximately $-189 per month in cash flow after a 75% LTV DSCR refinance. With approximately $59K remaining in the deal after refinance, this represents a -4% cash-on-cash return on the remaining capital — before appreciation.

Auburn Gresham has strong community development corporation presence (Greater Auburn Gresham Development Corp). Successful operators partner with the CDC. Section 8 rentals provide strong cash flow.

How this scales across Auburn Gresham

Auburn Gresham's housing stock includes 2-flat, 3-flat, bungalow, workers cottage. Multi-unit properties (2-flat, 3-flat) typically produce 30–60% higher gross rent than single-family at similar ARVs but carry higher tax burdens and management overhead. Single-family rehabs often have stronger exit liquidity (owner-occupant buyers) but lower cash flow.

Sensitivity considerations

  • Rent assumption: Modeled at ~0.85% of ARV. Actual rents in Auburn Gresham range from 0.6–1.0% depending on property type and condition.
  • Property tax: Modeled at 2.5% of ARV for Cook County investor classification. Successful tax appeal can reduce this 15–30%.
  • Interest rate: DSCR refi rates currently range 7.5–9.5% depending on borrower profile and leverage. A 1% rate change moves monthly cash flow by approximately $100–200 on this deal size.
  • Rehab budget: Modeled at midpoint of $50K–$150K. Common considerations on Auburn Gresham housing stock (aging boilers, lead paint) can push budgets higher.

Auburn Gresham cash flow FAQ

What's the typical monthly rent in Auburn Gresham?

Estimated monthly rent for a stabilized investment property in Auburn Gresham at the $185K median ARV level is approximately $2K per month — a rough rule-of-thumb estimate at ~0.85% of ARV. Actual rents vary significantly by property type (2-flat, 3-flat, bungalow, workers cottage) and condition.

Does BRRRR pencil in Auburn Gresham?

On these estimates, a typical BRRRR project at the Auburn Gresham median ARV produces approximately $-189 per month in cash flow after debt service (at 75% LTV DSCR refi, 7.5% rate, 30-year amortization). Cash left in the deal after refinance: $59K. Individual deals vary substantially.

What's the typical property tax burden in Auburn Gresham?

For a property in Auburn Gresham valued at the median ARV of $185K, expect approximately $5K in annual property tax (Cook County investor-classification, before exemptions and appeals). Chicago city properties were reassessed in 2024 — many neighborhoods saw material assessment increases.

What rent-to-price ratio does Auburn Gresham typically support?

Auburn Gresham typically supports a rent-to-price ratio in the 0.6%-0.9% range depending on property type and condition. Multi-unit properties (2-flat, 3-flat) generally produce higher ratios than single-family. The 1% rule rarely applies in Chicago neighborhoods — but BRRRR works at lower ratios when appreciation supports it.

This is a directional cash-flow model, not personalized financial advice. Rent estimates, tax rates, and refinance terms are illustrative. Validate every assumption with current market data and your own underwriting before committing capital.

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