northwest side · cash flow modeling

Albany Park Cash Flow Analysis

BRRRR and long-term rental cash-flow modeling for Albany Park investor properties at the neighborhood median.

This analysis models a typical BRRRR project in Albany Park at the neighborhood median ARV of $530K. Real-world projects vary substantially based on property type, condition, and submarket dynamics.

Acquisition and rehab assumptions

Acquisition price (85% of median)$361K
Rehab budget (midpoint)$110K
All-in cost$471K
After-Repair Value (ARV)$530K

Monthly cash flow model

Estimated monthly rent$5K
Property tax (Cook County investor classification)−$1K
Insurance−$221
Vacancy reserve (7%)−$315
Property management (8%)−$360
Maintenance reserve (6%)−$270
Net Operating Income (monthly)$2K
DSCR refi at 75% LTV / 7.5% / 30yr$398K loan, $3K P&I
Monthly cash flow after debt service$-544
Cash left in deal after refinance$74K

What this tells us about Albany Park

At the Albany Park median, a typical BRRRR project produces approximately $-544 per month in cash flow after a 75% LTV DSCR refinance. With approximately $74K remaining in the deal after refinance, this represents a -9% cash-on-cash return on the remaining capital — before appreciation.

Albany Park is one of Chicago's most active value-add multi-unit markets. The 2-flat-to-single-family conversion play has been strong for a decade and continues to work. Watch the deconversion ordinance discussions — could affect strategy if rules tighten.

How this scales across Albany Park

Albany Park's housing stock includes 2-flat, 3-flat, small multi-unit, mixed-use. Multi-unit properties (2-flat, 3-flat) typically produce 30–60% higher gross rent than single-family at similar ARVs but carry higher tax burdens and management overhead. Single-family rehabs often have stronger exit liquidity (owner-occupant buyers) but lower cash flow.

Sensitivity considerations

  • Rent assumption: Modeled at ~0.85% of ARV. Actual rents in Albany Park range from 0.6–1.0% depending on property type and condition.
  • Property tax: Modeled at 2.5% of ARV for Cook County investor classification. Successful tax appeal can reduce this 15–30%.
  • Interest rate: DSCR refi rates currently range 7.5–9.5% depending on borrower profile and leverage. A 1% rate change moves monthly cash flow by approximately $100–200 on this deal size.
  • Rehab budget: Modeled at midpoint of $55K–$165K. Common considerations on Albany Park housing stock (tuckpointing, lead paint) can push budgets higher.

Albany Park cash flow FAQ

What's the typical monthly rent in Albany Park?

Estimated monthly rent for a stabilized investment property in Albany Park at the $530K median ARV level is approximately $5K per month — a rough rule-of-thumb estimate at ~0.85% of ARV. Actual rents vary significantly by property type (2-flat, 3-flat, small multi-unit, mixed-use) and condition.

Does BRRRR pencil in Albany Park?

On these estimates, a typical BRRRR project at the Albany Park median ARV produces approximately $-544 per month in cash flow after debt service (at 75% LTV DSCR refi, 7.5% rate, 30-year amortization). Cash left in the deal after refinance: $74K. Individual deals vary substantially.

What's the typical property tax burden in Albany Park?

For a property in Albany Park valued at the median ARV of $530K, expect approximately $13K in annual property tax (Cook County investor-classification, before exemptions and appeals). Chicago city properties were reassessed in 2024 — many neighborhoods saw material assessment increases.

What rent-to-price ratio does Albany Park typically support?

Albany Park typically supports a rent-to-price ratio in the 0.6%-0.9% range depending on property type and condition. Multi-unit properties (2-flat, 3-flat) generally produce higher ratios than single-family. The 1% rule rarely applies in Chicago neighborhoods — but BRRRR works at lower ratios when appreciation supports it.

This is a directional cash-flow model, not personalized financial advice. Rent estimates, tax rates, and refinance terms are illustrative. Validate every assumption with current market data and your own underwriting before committing capital.

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